Where Are Lumber Prices Headed Next? The Future of Wood in a Shifting Market

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🔎 In This Episode: 
  • Explore the volatile journey of lumber prices over the past five years
  • Why psychological price points like $500 and $1000 matter in the market
  • Analysis of price spikes and dips since 2020, and how they’ve affected the construction industry
  • Learn why we’re unlikely to return to $300–$500 lumber prices again
  • How builders and homeowners have adjusted to higher lumber costs
  • Insights into investor activity in new home subdivisions and what it signals
  • Forecast for a new “normal” lumber price range: $750 to $1100
  • The real impact of lumber prices on total home construction costs
  • Why final house pricing matters more to buyers than material pricing
  • Breakdown of a home’s cost structure: lumber, labor, permits, and land
  • How a 20% lumber increase only adds around 7% to the home price
  • Why higher costs are being absorbed across all segments (builders, buyers, remodelers)
  • Challenges with material availability: fixtures, trim, appliances, copper, and labor
  • Scarcity of skilled subcontractors and its impact on construction timelines
  • Why price increases of $20k–$100k on projects are being normalized—just like car prices
  • Overview of factors keeping lumber prices elevated: diesel, labor, insurance, supply chain
  • How lumber yards are struggling with tighter margins and higher inventory costs
  • Discussion on why no one—builders, yards, or mills—is truly benefiting from price hikes
  • The role of high transportation and operation costs in keeping prices up
  • Why building a new home may be a smarter financial choice than buying an existing one
Predictions: new lumber price floor around $600–$700, occasional peaks above $1000
Reminder: inflationary pressures on all inputs mean prices won’t dramatically fall
Final takeaway: get used to the new price landscape—this is the long-term trend
Where Are Lumber Prices Headed Next? The Future of Wood in a Shifting Market
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