There Goes Lumber Prices… Again! What’s Fueling the Surge?

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🔍 Episode Description: 
  • We’re keeping a close eye on lumber prices—not just for you, our listeners, but also for our own projects.
  • A few months ago, there was an expectation that lumber prices would come down as the real estate market cooled.
  • While there was a slight softening, prices quickly bounced back with just a minor shift in mortgage rates.
  • A mere 11 basis point drop in mortgage rates (just 0.1%) caused lumber prices to spike 7%.
  • Prices remain below $1,000 per thousand board feet but are now hovering in the $600 range.
  • This shows how sensitive the lumber market is to even small signs of recovery in construction or real estate.
  • The days of $400–$500 lumber may be gone for good due to several underlying factors:
    • Ongoing housing shortage
    • Persistent demand despite high home prices and interest rates
    • Buyers adjusting to the "new normal" of high costs and higher interest rates
  • Once developers and contractors adapt, the construction market is expected to fire up again—boosting lumber demand.
  • Labor shortages in lumber mills continue, with companies offering high wages and signing bonuses.
  • The supply chain remains tight, even with reduced demand, due to a lack of skilled workers.
  • People still need homes; demand hasn’t disappeared—just adjusted.
  • Even homes priced well above previous years are selling.
  • There's a persistent shortage of inventory, pushing prices and demand higher.
  • Many homes today are older and in need of repairs, updates, or additions—all of which require lumber.
  • Since the 2008 housing crash, fewer homes have been built, increasing the need for remodels and new construction.
💬 Listener Feedback:
Tell us what you think about today’s episode. Are lumber prices here to stay at these elevated levels? Leave a comment and join the discussion!
There Goes Lumber Prices… Again! What’s Fueling the Surge?
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