The Million-Dollar Question: Why Your Dream Home Just Got 30% More Expensive

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Episode Show Notes
Why Nobody Wins in Today's Real Estate Market
  • Neither buyers nor sellers will be happy with current market conditions
  • Buyers waiting for price drops won't see relief - experts predict prices won't fall
  • Sellers face reduced ability to sell homes in this challenging market
  • Real estate professionals experiencing dramatic business decline over next 24-36 months
The Interest Rate Impact
  • Buyers are officially spooked by rising interest rates, not home prices
  • Home prices increased dramatically over past two years without deterring buyers
  • Properties selling 40-60% higher than previous year still received multiple offers
  • Interest rates psychologically impact buyers more than selling prices
  • Mortgage payments, not home values, are the real concern
The Inventory Crisis Gets Worse
  • Current inventory shortage will continue to worsen
  • Some sellers entering market due to fear of declining home values
  • Normal move-up sellers are locked in with low mortgage rates (2-3%)
  • Moving to new home means accepting rates near 6% - many choose to stay put
  • Can't transfer existing low mortgage rates to new properties
Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior
  • Buyers pushing off purchase plans by 6-12 months
  • Homes sitting on market longer than before
  • Price reductions happening from inflated values, not 2019-2020 baseline
  • Current asking prices still much higher than a year ago
  • Perfect storm of decreasing supply and decreasing demand
Why Prices Won't Crash
  • Volume of sales will drop dramatically, but prices remain elevated
  • 14 out of 15 buyers from previous bidding wars still seeking homes
  • Available inventory will be absorbed, just at slower pace
  • Decent homes will eventually sell - no need to discount to pre-pandemic prices
  • Market will shift from 2-week inventory to traditional 40-60 day inventory
Industry Impact
  • Mortgage brokers seeing business drop to near zero
  • Realtors experiencing reduced sales volume and commissions
  • Transaction volume down 30-40%, expected to reach 50% by year end
  • Won't crash like 2008 - will stabilize at reduced but sustainable level
The Bottom Line
  • Price levels are "ratcheted in" and won't retreat significantly
  • Supply and demand will eventually balance out
  • Buyers and sellers will meet in the middle over time
  • Market correction through volume reduction, not price crashes
The Million-Dollar Question: Why Your Dream Home Just Got 30% More Expensive
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