The Million-Dollar Question: Why Your Dream Home Just Got 30% More Expensive
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Why Nobody Wins in Today's Real Estate Market
- Neither buyers nor sellers will be happy with current market conditions
- Buyers waiting for price drops won't see relief - experts predict prices won't fall
- Sellers face reduced ability to sell homes in this challenging market
- Real estate professionals experiencing dramatic business decline over next 24-36 months
The Interest Rate Impact
- Buyers are officially spooked by rising interest rates, not home prices
- Home prices increased dramatically over past two years without deterring buyers
- Properties selling 40-60% higher than previous year still received multiple offers
- Interest rates psychologically impact buyers more than selling prices
- Mortgage payments, not home values, are the real concern
The Inventory Crisis Gets Worse
- Current inventory shortage will continue to worsen
- Some sellers entering market due to fear of declining home values
- Normal move-up sellers are locked in with low mortgage rates (2-3%)
- Moving to new home means accepting rates near 6% - many choose to stay put
- Can't transfer existing low mortgage rates to new properties
Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior
- Buyers pushing off purchase plans by 6-12 months
- Homes sitting on market longer than before
- Price reductions happening from inflated values, not 2019-2020 baseline
- Current asking prices still much higher than a year ago
- Perfect storm of decreasing supply and decreasing demand
Why Prices Won't Crash
- Volume of sales will drop dramatically, but prices remain elevated
- 14 out of 15 buyers from previous bidding wars still seeking homes
- Available inventory will be absorbed, just at slower pace
- Decent homes will eventually sell - no need to discount to pre-pandemic prices
- Market will shift from 2-week inventory to traditional 40-60 day inventory
Industry Impact
- Mortgage brokers seeing business drop to near zero
- Realtors experiencing reduced sales volume and commissions
- Transaction volume down 30-40%, expected to reach 50% by year end
- Won't crash like 2008 - will stabilize at reduced but sustainable level
The Bottom Line
- Price levels are "ratcheted in" and won't retreat significantly
- Supply and demand will eventually balance out
- Buyers and sellers will meet in the middle over time
- Market correction through volume reduction, not price crashes
