The Expert Podcast

So why are new cars going to be terrible for the next few years? It's probably likely that between now and 2030, new vehicles are going to be really bad in terms of selection, models, and how they match buyers' demands. Why is that? Well, first of all, we're in a process of transforming the market from gasoline vehicles (internal combustion engine vehicles) to electric vehicles. During that process, there's not going to be a lot of new innovation or new technology in gasoline vehicles. In fact, we reported on this a couple of years ago that Chrysler, in 2018, fired all of their gasoline vehicle engineers, meaning they stopped doing any new technology research and development on gasoline vehicles. So anything from 2018 to now is older technology. They're not creating any new engines, new transmissions, or new technology. They're updating some of them, but nothing new is coming down the pipeline. So most manufacturers have some similar pipeline transformation from gas to EVs.

What's happening is that's kind of letting gasoline vehicle technology die on the vine. EVs are still ramping up, and now there's a little bit of a caught-in-midstream situation with electric vehicles because the market for EVs did not take off as much as manufacturers and even the government thought it would. So now EVs are kind of delayed a little bit. So, in 2024, 2025, and even the beginning of 2026, there will still be some pretty good gasoline vehicles—legacy vehicles—out there. Electric vehicles will maybe start to modernize a little bit, but the worst years are going to be 2026, 2027, 2028, and even into 2029. There's going to be a lot of really bad vehicles out there and a lot of poor selection. You won't be able to find exactly what you're looking for in terms of capabilities, style, or combinations of factors.

If that is true and it turns out to be the case, what do you do in the meantime? Well, maybe you hold off and buy a new vehicle if you have two family cars—two new vehicles—in maybe 2025 or 2026 to hold you over until 2031 when there might be some better vehicles out there. Another thing to keep in mind is that in 2026, or maybe 2027, all new vehicles are required to have a kill switch. This means that if the vehicle automatically detects your driving badly for whatever reason, it can shut off your car, or it can be remotely shut off by the authorities. If you don't want that in your vehicle for as long as possible, try to buy one right before that becomes mandatory.

The sweet spot for buying a car might be in the next couple of years, and then after that, there might be some terrible cars for the rest of the decade. After that, maybe the market and the development of new vehicles will become better in the early 2030s. It remains to be seen—that's a long way away.

What are your thoughts about this, and what have you seen in the news? How do you see the market for vehicles changing over the next decade?