The Expert Podcast

• Lumber prices have fallen significantly, reaching around $500 per thousand board feet, making it less viable for mills to produce lumber at these rates.
• Mills may be losing money once production and operational costs (labor, insurance, etc.) are accounted for, prompting curtailments (shutting down or reducing supply).
• Some mills have started curtailments in the past month or two, though inventory shortages may not be apparent yet due to supply chain delays.

• As a result of curtailments, some lumber buyers are "jumping off the fence" and committing to lumber packages to secure inventory, which could potentially increase prices.
• 2022 price trends showed significant fluctuations, with prices reaching as high as $1600 per thousand board feet in 2021 before dropping to around $500 mid-year, now stabilizing in the $600-$700 range.
• Expect lumber prices to stabilize at $600-$700 per thousand board feet in the future, but currently, prices are artificially low due to reduced demand.

• Mills are dealing with high log costs and lower lumber prices, leading to reduced production, which in turn lowers payroll and energy costs.
• This downtime is a strategy to manage expenses, as mills may not be able to sustain profitability at current prices.
• Example: One trader reported diminishing sawmill offerings in October, slightly boosting prices.

• Lumber traders are seeing lower inventories at retailers and lumber yards, prompting them to secure more materials for their customers.
• While there is strong demand for Western SPF studs, some buyers remain cautious and are purchasing only for immediate needs, avoiding larger buys due to cash flow concerns.

• Share your experiences with lumber prices and how they’re impacting your operations, especially if you're a contractor. Let us know what’s happening in your area!