The Expert Podcast

One of the biggest problems that could be facing the recovery from Hurricane Ian in the future has to do with the number of contractors available. In years past, when a hurricane hit Florida, there were contractors, general contractors, and subcontractors that could swoop in and fix up these houses, repair houses, or even build new homes. But really, the last major hurricane that caused a lot of damage to a large number of homes was in 2005 and 2006. In the early 2000s, there were serious hurricanes that hit Florida, but they didn’t cause damage to a large number of homes. While these storms did result in some home damage and loss of life, the number of homes that were affected was relatively small compared to Ian. The damage from Ian was severe, and many of these homes need to be rebuilt. However, at that point, there were still contractors and builders in the marketplace because the building market in 2015 and 2016 was doing well.

Fast forward to today, and you have supply chain issues, the pandemic, and shrinking speculation on home builders. A lot of home builders have left the industry, a lot of contractors have left, and a lot of people who were working for home builders are gone. There's no new pipeline of talent coming through the system. In fact, if you talk to any home builder or contractor, the biggest problem they face is finding help, finding employees, and finding people who know what they’re doing. A lot of general contractors and builders have retired or gone out of business.

Now, in 2022 and 2023, you have tens of thousands of homes that need to be built in Southwestern Florida, Central Florida, with flooding, and even some on the East Central Coast like the Daytona area. There aren’t many builders left, and those that do exist may not have the ability to get quality help or employees to build these homes. While some people are coming from other states, there's also a materials problem. Although lumber prices have come down, which is a good thing, there's still a shortage of some materials. Even things like adhesives, coatings, paint, and fasteners are still in short supply.

Once the dust settles and everyone who needs to be rescued has been helped, the next step will be rebuilding these homes. There’s already a shortage of homes being built for normal home buyers. Add in the tens of thousands of homes that need to be rebuilt in one state to get back to normal—just to maintain the same number of houses for the existing population—and that’s going to be a problem. The delay and lead time to get these homes built could be one, two, or three years. What will people do in the meantime?

If you take away the capacity for building homes for the increasing population just to get back to normal, that will put a strain on the system. This could result in more homeless people or higher construction prices. It will be interesting to see how that rolls out.

If you're a contractor or builder, let us know what you think. If you're a builder in anywhere in Southeast Florida, Georgia, Alabama, the Carolinas, or even Tennessee, are you in a position to take on extra work if, for example, homeowners, insurance companies, or government agencies needed to contract for homes to be built? Are you in a position to take on a full build, major repair, or major reconstruction? What kind of capacity do you have? Put it in the comments. How many homes could you build over the next 24 months, taking into account labor and getting help? If you're coming from out of state, would you bring people with you or hire locally, counting on the fact that they’re available? Let us know what you think.

Talk to you then.