The Expert Podcast

• Distinction between sales rates and property prices:
  • A 20% decline in home sales volume does not mean a 20% drop in prices.
  • Example: If 1,000 homes sold last month and only 800 sold this month, sales volume declined, but prices may remain stable or even rise.
• Impact of Prices on Sales Volume
  • Rising prices can lead to reduced sales volume as homes become less affordable.
  • Example: A house priced at $450,000 may sell 1,000 units, but if the price increases to $525,000, only 800 units might sell.
  • In an inflationary market, reduced volume can sometimes drive prices higher due to supply constraints.
• Supply-Side Deficit
  • Current housing market faces limited inventory.
  • Sellers with low-interest-rate mortgages may not want to sell unless they can achieve a significant profit.
  • New construction prices are unlikely to decrease due to higher building costs and fees.
• Price Trends vs. Listing Trends
  • Reductions in initial listing prices (on platforms like Zillow or Redfin) do not equate to declining actual sale prices.
  • Actual sale prices remain significantly higher compared to two to three years ago.
• Key Takeaways
  • Prices have not shown a significant decline; in many cases, they are still up by 40-80% compared to previous years.
  • The market may experience slower price growth, but price declines are unlikely at this stage.
• Final Notes
  • Monitor actual sale prices rather than sales volume for a clearer understanding of market trends.
  • Share your thoughts or market observations in the comments section!