The Expert Podcast

So what's going to finally happen with electric vehicles? We've talked about it on this channel for a long time. Is it going to be a thing? Is it going to take over, or is it going to be a flop? Well, according to Toyota, EVs will max out at 30% market share. It's never going to be bigger than that. I think that's a pretty good guess because a lot of these EVs will be second vehicles for around-town use. Most people in a two- or three-car family still want to have gasoline vehicles to go on long trips and to be dependable.

EVs make sense for around town, short distances, or certain types of use. However, it's going to be very difficult for a lot of families to have only electric vehicles in their household, and some families will never have an electric vehicle. So, 30% is not a bad guess, and Toyota is banking their future on it. In fact, even today, General Motors came out and said, "Our customers want hybrids," which is a good happy medium. It's a way to get some fuel economy from battery and electric technology without abandoning the long-distance driving dependability of gasoline.

This is a good guess. If we look 5, 10, or 15 years down the road, this 25% to 30% market share is probably a reasonable estimate. Forcing gasoline vehicles off the road by 2030, which some states are trying to do, is probably going to be a little bit unreasonable and unsustainable.

Let us know what you think in the comments. Would you have an EV as your only vehicle? Or, even if you're a die-hard, dedicated gasoline vehicle person, would you at least have a hybrid or an EV as a second vehicle for saving money on short-term trips?