The Expert Podcast

So it looks like we're not the only ones that have some concern and questions about whether or not EVs are actually going to happen. In our last video, we talked about whether or not EVs are going to be a thing. Here are some very major players in the EV industry starting to ask the question: are EVs going to happen?

Clean Technica, not exactly a skeptic of EVs, asked the question today: What happens if EVs fail in the United States? They're looking at slower sales, the fact that this first wave of EVs was mostly affluent, wealthy first adopters who wanted something neat, something cool, something different. It wasn't really that they wanted an EV for the actual purpose—it was more that it was a novelty. Now, those buyers are starting to fade away, and some people who had EVs are now switching back to gasoline vehicles. The growth is falling off a cliff.

At the same time, you're seeing the chairman of Toyota saying that people are finally seeing the reality of EVs amid cooling demand and a price war with China. We'll talk about the China aspect because that could affect things in ways that are not expected.

So the question is: are electric vehicles a viable market product that is going to be widespread? Is it going to be like, you know, at first maybe the iPhone was a little bit different, and there was skepticism, but then it took off and caught fire? What about EVs? People have different opinions—are they practical? Are they useful? Are they better than other cars? And if the demand isn't there, is there going to be some other method to ensure that they are adopted? Is there going to be a ban on gasoline vehicles? Is the government going to force everybody to buy an EV? Is the electric vehicle market going to be taken over by Chinese imports? And these could be a lot different than vehicles we're used to—they may be a little more tinny, more like a golf cart, more like a basic vehicle where larger, heavier, more substantial vehicles will no longer be the norm for people to get around in.

Not to get all tin foil hat, but follow me with this one. Hear me out: Let’s say the current batch of electric vehicles aren't desirable to buyers because they don't have the range, they're too expensive, and they’re trying to take the prior version of a vehicle—motor vehicle with engine and gasoline and transmissions and everything else—and use the same type of body, the same type of form factor, and just put electric motors in it. Which basically is what EVs are. There are a few differences, but they look like gasoline cars. Maybe that doesn't work. Now, instead of doing that, what if they say let’s make these smaller, tinier, mini versions of cars that are electric? They'll be cheaper, made in China, and cost around 25,000–30,000 instead of 50,000–60,000. And we’ll force everybody to buy them.

What’s the downside? Well, the downside is if you have half of these smaller, less durable vehicles on the road and then a lot of older, heavier gasoline vehicles on the road, someone’s going to get hurt. Because when these little tiny vehicles crash into something, it’s going to be dangerous.

So, are they predicting that? Well, again, not to be tin foil hat, but what about this? In Colorado, they just passed a law that charges people for driving trucks and SUVs, heavier vehicles. So, is that going to be something that they put in place to try to get heavier vehicles off the road and get everybody to drive these smaller electric vehicles? I don’t know. I'm just trying to see what might be happening. They talk about heavier vehicles doing more damage—9,000 lb trucks pay $29 per year, and all this kind of stuff.

So, is this a test to see about charging heavier vehicles more? And remember, electric vehicles are not exactly light—the batteries can weigh 1,000 or 2,000 lbs. So, I know you have an opinion about all this. Let us know in the comments what you think. Are EVs going to fail? Are the manufacturers going to play chicken, or are the government powers that be going to make us all buy electric vehicles? What do you think?