The Expert Podcast

So, what the heck is going on with electric vehicles (EVs)? Are they going to be a thing? Are they going to take over gas vehicles or not? One of the arguments that's often made by proponents of electric vehicles is that this is exactly like the switch over from horse and buggy to automobiles. In fact, this is a quote from the Rivian CEO, who makes these EV trucks—which are actually pretty nice trucks. They're pretty expensive, but they're nice. He says that people who are buying gas cars right now are like building a horse barn in 1910. Makes sense, right?

It seems logical. In 1910, when automobiles were coming out in the late teens and 1920s—the Model T, for example—if you were putting all your eggs in the horse-and-buggy basket, maybe you were going to be behind the curve. There’s only one problem with this argument: it assumes that EVs are better than gas-powered cars. Back in the 1910s or 1920s, it was obvious that an automobile, if you really looked at it, was better than a horse. It could go farther, it could be faster, and it could carry more people. It had natural advantages.

Now, it sometimes took people a while to realize that, and there was some pushback—like complaints about these "metal things" on the road being dangerous. But, logically, at the end of the day, someone with an automobile could actually do more than someone with a horse. Is that the same logic when comparing EVs versus gas-powered cars? That’s the question. Does it add to life? Does it improve life? Is it more desirable? That’s the real question. I know you have an opinion about that—let us know in the comments.

On the other hand, there are people who say the EV revolution is a done deal. It’s going to happen no matter what, and it’s going to bring prosperity for all. But is that the reality? On the flip side, there are people who say, “I don’t need or can’t use an electric vehicle. I drive too far. I need a truck that hauls stuff. If I use my heater in the winter, it’s going to burn out the battery.” There’s still a lot of uncertainty. The fact that people aren’t rushing out to buy electric vehicles might kind of be in conflict with this optimistic statement.

EVs are backing up on new car dealers’ lots. Maybe there’s something else going on—maybe they’re too expensive, or maybe the word’s not out yet. It remains to be seen. But if all you’re doing is looking at this argument like it’s the same as the horse-and-buggy situation in 1910, well, automobiles were an obvious advantage over horses. It’s still not completely agreed upon whether or not electric vehicles are an improvement over gasoline vehicles.

One area where there’s a lot of consensus is on EVs' used market. A Tesla manager thinks used cars are pivotal for EVs. Used EVs seem like they’re going to be an important part of the market. They’re priced a lot cheaper and haven’t gone up in price like gasoline cars. So that may be one area that flips the script one way or another.