The Expert Podcast

So, what is going on with the adoption of electric vehicles and the transition from gasoline vehicles to electric vehicles? Well, here's a report from the ICF, which is a climate center that tracks the transition to green energy. This report is called The Impact of Electric Vehicles, and the headline is: The U.S. is not on track to achieve its climate goals. What does that mean? The official goals of the U.S. are to achieve a net-zero economy by 2050, requiring a transition to electric vehicles at 100%.

In fact, today we'll do a video a little bit later where the state of California is looking to ban the sale of gasoline vehicles within the next 10 years. That's going to be a pretty significant transition. The other important part is having enough energy to power all these new EVs. It even says clean energy is needed to power the EVs. I don't even know if we have any kind of energy — clean or not — to power it right now. Having it be all clean energy will be an even greater task.

Let's take a look at the numbers in more detail. Here's quote number one: "EV adoption is surging, reaching many goals set by automakers and policymakers." Those who are setting these goals will require extensive changes that go far beyond the vehicles on the road. Transformation will be felt across auto manufacturing, infrastructure, power generation, distribution, and even how people use vehicles. They know this is more than just switching out the cars; it's going to change a lot about the use of transportation in the country.

A key to this transition is getting the electricity that charges these cars to come from clean sources. Charging EVs with clean electricity is critical to reducing emissions. Without that, the total transportation emission reductions by 2050 are limited to 67%, meaning that it's not going to make a difference if we switch to EVs unless the way the electricity is generated is also not creating emissions.

They reflect that the amount of electrification will have significant implications for utility reliability. The peak-hour impact is especially critical for EV charging, which, if unmanaged, could add nearly 450 gigawatts per hour to peak demand in the late afternoon. At the same time, electrical demand already peaks today with few EVs on the road. What they're saying is that unless they come up with additional capacity, there's not enough electricity to power these cars even using existing electrical generation.

It goes on to say, "Unless managed, EV charging could strain the grid to the point of compromising power reliability." That's your key right here — this is on page 12 of 20, buried down the page. Unless managed, electric vehicle charging could strain the grid to the point of compromising power reliability.

What's their solution? One thing they're talking about is managing the peaks due to EV charging, meaning that maybe they either suggest or prohibit you from charging at certain times. They say that will be difficult, but load flexibility can play a key role. For example, co-locating batteries with EV chargers so you don't just have a charger connected to the grid, you have a battery there too. Now, instead of just having a charger, you have to have a battery on location as well to be able to store electricity during times when there's not peak demand.

They also talk about electric vehicles being a distributed energy generation source by discharging electricity from the batteries back to the grid during times of peak demand. Keep in mind that discharging batteries this way reduces the useful life of the battery on that vehicle. If they're counting on vehicles backfilling the grid, that might hurt the vehicle.

How complicated is this? They say the necessary transmission infrastructure to support that demand of renewable deployment can take decades of financing, planning, and permitting. They're saying right here that it's going to take decades to get the grid up, but they want this capacity to be available, and they want all the cars to be replaced within 10 years. The timelines don't match.

They warn power companies to be prepared for this. Increasing the number of EVs on the road will have significant impacts on the power grid. In moderate states, relative to 2020, electricity demand will increase 13% by 2035 and 31% by 2050. That's a high demand bar to meet.

According to this article, the bottom line is that utilities, state regulators, and policymakers need to start modeling how EV adoption rates will impact electricity demand. They talk about managed charging. What does managed charging mean? That probably means that they're going to restrict when and how much you can charge up an electric vehicle.

So, be aware that you want to plan for your trips and your travel and transportation to make sure that not only do you have access to charging stations, but you're able and allowed to charge from them at that time.

Therefore, the takeaways are: they want to continue to advance EV adoption and the adoption of charging infrastructure. They want to provide information, secure investments (meaning government-funded programs), and take action from all parties. Careful planning and location of charging stations are critical to support EV growth.

They also want to make sure the power sector is prepared for this. Preparing for electric grid impacts means utilities will need to provide solutions and technologies for these demands, including peak load, in the coming decades.

This is an important document because it lays out what the plans are for electric vehicle adoption. It doesn't matter if you agree or disagree; this is how the policymakers are planning for the rollout of electric vehicles. It's going to happen one way or another.

Planning for your future of transportation, employment, and maybe recreation around how this is going to affect your normal use of a motor vehicle is important. How you use a vehicle today might be different based on the limitations and capabilities of electric vehicles in the future.

Tell us what you think in the comments, and we'll see you in the next video.