The Expert Podcast

Since the pandemic started and maybe is now winding down, the U.S. government has spent trillions of dollars in stimulus trying to keep the economy going and make sure that we have an economy that doesn't collapse. So far, according to the U.S. government, they’ve spent 3.7 trillion in total outlays. There’s a little bit more money that has gone to obligations, meaning promises of payment that are made but haven’t been spent yet. But so far, 3.7 trillion represents all outlays or actual payments made by agencies for the pandemic. This is through 4/30/2022. And again, there’s another six or seven hundred billion that is promised, but so far, 3.7 trillion has been spent.

Has it all been for naught? Is it all wasted? Well, I don't know. According to CBS, the stock market has wiped out 3 trillion in retirement savings. So, all that stimulus money went out to the economy, but in the same period of time, about the same amount—3 trillion—has been erased from the economy from the stock market crashing. Was it a break-even? Was it an even wash that all that money was spent for nothing? Some people think that the stock market is going down because of the stimulus spending, because of inflation—people can’t afford houses, can’t afford gas, can’t afford groceries, so they’re not buying as much.

What do you think? Put your comments below. Do you think that there's a relationship between these two? Is it a coincidence that these numbers are about the same? Do you think the stock market is going to go down another 700 billion to match, or do you think it's just a pure coincidence between the two? And if that is the case, that 3 trillion that people counted on for retirement, how’s that going to be replaced? Are these people not going to be able to retire? Are they going to have to work longer? Are they going to have to take out loans or pull money from other areas?

This begs the bigger question: Should we spend more? If this 3.7 trillion is already spent, should we be spending more on other programs, maybe student loans or other social programs? What about interest rates? The Fed has raised interest rates three-quarters of a percent, 75 basis points, in the last week, and supposedly more on the way. We've talked in prior videos; we expect that mortgage interest rates right now are approaching seven and will likely be ten percent. When we did our prediction on 10 percent mortgages a couple of months ago, people thought we were crazy. Rates were at two-point-something percent last year, and seeing them at 10 seems like it's impossible. But now that they're almost at seven, it doesn’t seem like a stretch anymore to have mortgage rates at 10 percent.

So, what do you think about all this with the economy? Did that stock market fall cost you money? Is your retirement at risk? Is your 401k lower than it was? If it is, what would be your plans if it stayed low? And let’s say you had a 401k that had, I don’t know, five or six hundred thousand in it, and now it’s got 220,000 because of the stock market crash. What do you plan to do? You had planned a retirement based on having that four or five hundred thousand, and now if it's two or two fifty, are you changing your plans? How are you gonna make up for it? Are you going to try to do something more risky to make up the difference? Are you going to try to put more money into it? Are you going to sell some items? What are your plans?

Let’s hear from you in the comments, and we’ll see you on the next video.