The Expert Podcast

Once again, the construction industry is at the forefront of major economic news. The economy of the United States is very much affected by construction in many ways—not just the employment part or the financial investments in construction—but it affects everything else, including interest rates and personal finance. In California, they have been trying to get rid of the housing gap by getting more people into homes, reducing homelessness, and ensuring fewer people pay too much for housing by building new apartments. However, they've been trying to jump-start construction for several years now, and it’s not working.

Part of the reason it’s not working is that the numbers don’t pencil out. Interest rates are high and still going up, and fewer people are willing to work in the construction industry. Not many are qualified. In the meantime, this situation is creating more renters than homeowners. A new article that came out this week even states that renting can age you faster than smoking or obesity. The stress, economic instability, uncertainty, rising rent costs, and even the location of rental properties—often in less healthy areas than where homeowners live—can affect your health and accelerate aging.

To counter this, many states, especially those hard-hit by homelessness or high rent, are trying to build more rental properties. California is the first state that comes to mind, but they are not doing a good job of getting these projects off the ground. There are significant barriers, such as impact fees, Coastal Commission fees, permit fees, and even application rejections due to neighborhood pushback or government intervention.

This situation is creating a big game of chicken with the economy. Interest rates are going up again, and mortgage rates for single-family home purchases have now hit 8%. If you’ve been following our channel for over a year, this isn’t news to you—it’s not a surprise. We predicted that rates would surpass 8% by the end of this year, and this prediction turned out to be accurate. We also expect rates to approach 10% by 2025. While that may seem far off, it’s only about a year and a half away. By spring 2025—just 18 months from now—rates could be near 10%.

Higher rates will make home purchases even more difficult because people won’t be able to afford the mortgages. It will also increase rents, as property owners who are refinancing at higher rates will face higher costs. Inflation will add to their expenses, and with fewer people able to leave the rental market due to high interest rates, there will be increased demand for rental properties. Expect rental rates to remain high.

We’re not saying this based on personal opinion alone—we always rely on data. For instance, if you look at the top of this article, it mentions that stocks inched higher as markets evaluated the Fed's comments on the economy. What were these comments? The Fed stated that inflation is still going to rise, which means they will likely raise rates again. This reinforces the expectation that both interest rates and mortgage rates will continue to climb.

If you’re in the construction industry, be aware that while states are eager to jump-start construction, they are facing significant challenges. More people are entering the rental market, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to get these projects started.

We’d love to hear your opinion about this. If you’re in the construction trade or building industry, let us know in the comments below what problems you’re encountering with permitting, applications, zoning, or even the fees associated with getting a project off the ground.

As for renting, do you see a growing gap between renters and homeowners? Is there a financial gap, a health-related gap, or even a difference in job prospects? For instance, homeowners might enjoy greater stability when looking for employment. Share your thoughts about what you’re observing in your area.